“The initiatives include Greek debt buybacks, return of Securities Market Programme (SMP) profits to Greece, reduction of Greek Loan Facility (GLF) interest rates, significant extension of GLF and European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) maturities, and the deferral of EFSF interest rate payments."
In realtà non c'è nessun accordo e al cambio €/$ non è piaciuta la presa in giro...
I termini trovati ieri notte sono una speranza, una fantasia.... ma comunque tutti i principali giornali parlano di accordo trovato e tanto basta alla Troika per prendere in giro qualche milione di persone...
1) About EUR 35bn to be paid out to Greece in December, about EUR9 bn in three Q1 tranches
2) Greece still has to meet some conditions and pass a tax reform and fulfill conditions on buyback but goal seems to be to have December 13 final decision on disbursement
3) Greek debt to be reduced to 124% of GDP by 2020, in absolute terms, ambition is to cut Greek debt by EUR40-45bn.
4) Rates on official loans to Greece are cut; ECB returns profits on Greek bonds bought at a discount and paid at face value
5) Offer to buy back debt at 35 cents on the EUR
6) EFSF defer interest payments for 10 years and extends loan maturities by 15 years
7) No forgiveness on face value of official loans (but lower rates would imply an NPV cut)
8) Additional debt relief possible down the road if Greece meets austerity targets
9) Some rumors of a further write-down down the road if Greece complies with austerity program
10) Many additional avenues of possible help to Greece, contingent on austerity, are being mooted
11) Greece has to sequester revenues in advance to meet debt servicing needs
leggiamo cosa ne pensa Jp Morgan...
" .....nel primo grafico vediamo la situazione Greca, senza modifiche..... il debito Greco sarà al 148% del pil nel 2020 e al 137% nel 2022.... nel secondo Grafico vediamo la stessa situazione ma con alcune modifiche tra cui, una riduzione del costo del rifinanziamento di 90 punti base un prestito da 14 bilioni via EFSF per riacquistare 35 bilioni di debito dal mercato, e terzo il trasferimento dei profitti SMP (streamlined modification program) alla Grecia...e allora con queste modifiche il ratio si ridurrebbe a 130,6% nel 2020 e al 115,4% nel 2022....
...ah dimenticavo... la Grecia dovrebbe crescere dall'anno prossimo in avanti con una media del 4%...."
leggi anche: ad atene danno i numeri, l'euroscempio regala altre perle
The Euro group will meet for the third time today to try and resolve the Greece situation. The key issue revolves around medium term debt sustainability rather than near term financing issues. The need to agree on the medium term debt sustainability issue is about keeping the IMF on board the program, rather than sorting out the situation once and for all. Near term financing issues look likely to be dealt with via higher T-bill issuance.
The Euro group could reach a decision today if it is prepared to do a bit of everything. The first table below shows the situation out to 2022 without any areawide policy change. In this situation, Greek debt would be 147.9% of GDP in 2020 and 135.2% of GDP in 2022. The second table shows the impact of three changes: first, a 90bp reduction on the borrowing costs on the Greek loan facility; second, a €14bn EFSF loan to buy back €35bn of market debt; and third, the transfer of SMP profits to Greece. With these policy changes, Greek debt would be 130.6% of GDP in 2020 and 115.4% of GDP in 2022.
If the Euro group is able to agree on this, the next tranche of the second program will be released and the IMF will likely remain on board. But, the big question of a restructuring of official loans will still need to be answered at some point in the future. The debt dynamics in the tables below still assume ambitious fiscal numbers for Greece and solid nominal GDP growth. Greece is assumed to be able to run a primary surplus of 4.5% of GDP on an indefinite basis, and nominal GDP growth is assumed to average over 4%.