Un interessante studio commissionato da Barclays via due economisti (Jeremy Bulow e Kenneth Rogoff) analizza le funzionalità e le implicazioni nei sistemi di ri-acquisto del debito
(leggi anche: il circolo vizioso del debito Europeo).
In allegato qui sotto trovate il documento completo,
per farla breve la conclusione è quella che già sapevamo.
Una politica di solo buy-back non stabilizza e nemmeno riduce il debito, lo aumenta.
(leggi anche: la riduzione dell'indebitamento parte 2)
Costringe i legislatori ad aumentare la pressione fiscale, aumenta l'evasione, aumenta il flusso in uscita di capitali, aumenta le implicazioni negative sulla crescita ed aumenta la possibilità di rivolte sociali.
Complimenti ancora....
8. Where does the debt buyback leave Greece and Europe from a medium- to long-term perspective?
A successful debt buyback will most likely pave the way for a resolution of the disputes within the troika and lead to the disbursement of the next tranche of around €44bn. However, as mentioned in the previous answer, even a successful Greek debt buyback wouldn’t come close to achieving a sustainable Greek debt position. And, as long as the debt sustainability issue remains outstanding, private investment will be limited, and the tax evasion and capital outflow situations are unlikely to improve. All of which will have negative growth implications. The longer growth remains weak, the more fiscal consolidation will probably be demanded of Greece by EU leaders, which might at some stage lead to further social unrest, potentially even followed by collapse of the already troubled existing government. While Germany’s plan is probably to delay any outright haircut on loans until after German elections in 2013, delaying to deal properly with Greek debt sustainability might create the above mentioned scenario before then. Therefore, it is even questionable whether the debt buyback would even buy the time that European politicians are hoping for before deciding on the end-game for Greece.
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